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Old 02-09-2010, 11:36 PM
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I did mean to include Windows Phone 7 in the 'boutique' list, all of which are 'open' in the sense I was talking about. Clearly open in terms of governance and code are different matters.

I'd also agree that there is likely to be some consolidation too. Difficult to pick out any thing particularly. Most platforms now have a major backer with the money to keep trying / support it.
Just as Nokia puts people off Symbian so will Google put people off Android. Manufacturers will not want to become Google OEMs in the style of the PC market. Thus I expect to see a certain amount on multi-OS plays from other players (HTC, Sony Ericsson, LG, Motorola).

Sony Ericsson is a hard one to judge. It is enjoying significant success with Android, but I'm not sure how sustainable this (thinking competitive Android scene and the plenty of cost based competition). They have said they want to go to two OSs: Android + ?. I suspect internally there's probably a big debate going on right now, with different people on each side. Symbian is somewhat handicapped by its current form (Symbian^1), but looking to Symbian^4/5/6 it looks much more competitive. WP7 is a bit of an unknown and may not be a great match for Sony Ericsson global footprint, but does seem to have some promise, especially in the US market... need to think about this one some more.

Yes its hard to see how Bada will go. But based on Samsung's number 2 position in mobile and strength in other consumer electronics I think it should be taken seriously. Samsung is probably the only company (along with Nokia) which is big enough to be a platform on it own.

Of course such predictions, such as these, are not easy to get right - too many factors involved, and much depends on market conditions/ demands / forces - its interesting to speculate about though.
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