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Old 22-02-2010, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Uninterested View Post
Certainly the Nexus 1 isn't doing as well as the iPhone did - by quite some distance. The market for an Android phone, or google type phone does have some competition of course, from phones like the droid but I don't think Android is anything out of the ordinary and certainly no sales blockbuster.

Buyers are holding back waiting for rumoured iPhone 4, when that arrives the floodgates will open. Note, waiting for iPhone 4, not buying alternatives such as Droid and Nexus.

The N900 is not really at the races. The rumoured to be imminent N910 will be worth looking at but the N900 feels like a prototype, or a beta device. I wouldn't bother comparing that to anything, it would be embarassed.
But with the purported 60.000 Android devices sold daily, which should add up to over 20 million per year, plus 30 million or more iPhones expected to be sold this year (I think this figure is too high), I´m not so sure there´s enough people in the world that can afford this. We´re talking about phones that cost maybe $300-$600 unlocked. If we compare to the iPod, after an initial formidable growth, sales did stagnate from 2007 at about 50 million units per year, and most of those iPods costed less than $300. Even most of the netbooks sold today cost no more than $300.

In such a scenario I think that Android will take some market share from iPhone, as I don´t think much novelty will come to "iPhone4" in terms of software. Furthermore I´m not sure to what extent Apple has been able to grab new customers (people that have never owned an Apple product) with their iPhones. Obviously they were guaranteed to sell a lot of iPhones because this device was also an iPod and because Apple had a loyal customer base. But this customer base is still relatively limited.

Now, this must be compared to Nokia that due to its massive scale and production efficiency can sell similar models for 15% less than their competitors at the same margins, they currently sell the 5230 for $150 and will sell even cheaper Symbian touch devices later this year, I think. Nokia also has a loyal customer base that is 10 times bigger than Apple´s. And while some of these customers have "departed" to iPhone, many still have their "hearts" with Nokia according to their research.

In general I also wonder about the limitations of the networks. With more and more 3G netbooks, tablets and smartphones, the excessive demand for data may push prices up, which could put a brake on the sales growth of the mentioned devices. Some of this can be solved by using browsers like Opera, however, this may not be available on the iPhone.

Should be interesting to see how things unfold over the next year.