2005 through the crystal ball

Exciting times ahead indeed. Great article, Rafe old boy. 😊

Btw, I thought Cobalt had been scrapped in favour of the Palm-Linux thing...?

Thanks Raven 😊

Palm Source say that there will be both Cobalt and Linux powered devices. There's definetely some Cobalt devices due shortly.

That's good news. It will hopefully mean that we'll finally see some decent multitasking PalmOS smartphones in the not too distant future. Hopefully the backward compatibility with the vast amount of Palm apps is good. It would definitely give Symbian some competition in the smartphone field. Which is a good thing, for the consumers. 😊

Oh I dunno, when it comes down to it, the Treo 600 has a lot going for it, and the 650 makes some good changes to the enviroment.

Very nice article Rafe. I don't think the importance of UIQ v 3 can be underestimated for this year. Although it will probably take them a while to get going once SE get the OS sorted for devices such as the K700, S700 and V800 then Symbian will be being targetted at a much wider audience then UIQ currently gets. It will be interesting to see how developers handle the differences between the touch screen interface phones and the 'smartphone' ones.

Nokia and the other manufacturers will have to start rolling out 3G devices quickly since the same early adopters who will want faster data access are the same as those they can sell smartphones too. The new GPRS communicators are already a generation behind. Now that Orange and Vodafone have launched their networks without the 'closed garden' used by 3 and with no dropped calls this will be a big growth market.

One thing that would really help Series 60 is a decent sized phone, something like the SPV C500. They're nearing saturation in markets where users want a phone that is powerful and can install applications and need to start selling to people who don't care about OS's and need to be sold on functionality rather than multi-tasking and technical specs. A small, designer Series 60 phone would go a long way towards achieving this market growth. Whether Nokia are capable of producing a decent looking phone is another matter. Maybe Samsung will finally actually release something.

And one more thing, can we get some decent PC synchronisation software?

MkollUK wrote:Very nice article Rafe. I don't think the importance of UIQ v 3 can be underestimated for this year. Although it will probably take them a while to get going once SE get the OS sorted for devices such as the K700, S700 and V800 then Symbian will be being targetted at a much wider audience then UIQ currently gets. It will be interesting to see how developers handle the differences between the touch screen interface phones and the 'smartphone' ones.

Nokia and the other manufacturers will have to start rolling out 3G devices quickly since the same early adopters who will want faster data access are the same as those they can sell smartphones too. The new GPRS communicators are already a generation behind. Now that Orange and Vodafone have launched their networks without the 'closed garden' used by 3 and with no dropped calls this will be a big growth market.

One thing that would really help Series 60 is a decent sized phone, something like the SPV C500. They're nearing saturation in markets where users want a phone that is powerful and can install applications and need to start selling to people who don't care about OS's and need to be sold on functionality rather than multi-tasking and technical specs. A small, designer Series 60 phone would go a long way towards achieving this market growth. Whether Nokia are capable of producing a decent looking phone is another matter. Maybe Samsung will finally actually release something.

Nah, Nokia already has the lower end of the smartphone market covered, no one can touch them there, at least not for a long while. What they need to do now (IMO) is focus more on the higher end of the PDA market. There is still a big market there and Nokia have the technology and the $$$ to take a piece of the pie.

Series 60 (in its current state) wont cut it for the more demanding PDA users where a decent screen size/resolution and text input is of the utmost importance. And that's where Series 90 (Series 60 Second Edition) comes in with a 640x320 screen resolution and support for both pen input and QWERTY. Which no current Windows Mobile or Palm OS PDA-phone can match. If Nokia only understand that the additional features required by the hardcore PDA users are things like a powerful processor, plenty of built-in memory, high customisability, Wi-Fi, GPS, dual memory expansion slots etc., they'd be on the right track. There is a reason why high-end standalone PDAs are still selling, and that's because they are the only devices that have all these features. And those users are willing to pay for it too.

Of course the platform wont take off right away, Nokia would need to invest in the long run, and most importantly - they have to spend alot of recourses to attract the software developers. But I definitely think there's a market here. Symbian is in many ways a more capable PDA-phone/smartphone OS than the current revisions of Windows Mobile and Palm OS. But the OS is still looked upon by many as a more simple mobile phone OS. This is what needs to change, IMO, by focusing more on the high-end PDA-phones, and cut down a bit on all the lower-end S60 phones. I mean, how many versions of the 7610 is really needed?

As for 3G, well it'll still take some time before the service is widely available (outside the UK at least). For now I'm content with EDGE. Video telephony is just a gimmick IMO. The only thing I'd find useful about 3G is the live streaming of media (video, audio), but that's still possible on EGPRS networks, while the major disadvantage is still the cost.

As for multitasking, that is directly linked to functionality. Lets say you are browsing the web and you want to check your e-mail without losing the connection or the place you are on the website. Lets say you want to stay connected to an IM service while you look up something on the Internet, or make a phone call, or look up something in a dictionary/encyclopedia, or check your appointments etc. etc., the list goes on. This is precisely why multitasking is so important and has everything to do with functionality. And that's why I was excited about Cobalt - because it is The First version of Palm OS that is said to have true multitasking abilities.

Raven wrote:Nah, Nokia already has the lower end of the smartphone market covered, no one can touch them there, at least not for a long while. What they need to do now (IMO) is focus more on the higher end of the PDA market. There is still a big market there and Nokia have the technology and the $$$ to take a piece of the pie.

The opportunity that Nokia have is to remove the distinction between a smartphone and a regular phone. If they can get Series 60 into a small, fashionable device like the K700i and sell it to regular punters then they can get a massive user base for the OS. Users may not realise they can install apps or multi-task when they buy the phone but it will gradually become something they want to do.

Although the profit margin on high-end PDA phones is much greater than on mass market phones this is more than counteracted by the much lower sales figures. The communictator and Px00 devices will never sell anywhere near as well as a small mobile with strong media capabilities (xMP camera, MP3 player, viden etc)

Raven wrote: If Nokia only understand that the additional features required by the hardcore PDA users are things like a powerful processor, plenty of built-in memory, high customisability, Wi-Fi, GPS, dual memory expansion slots etc., they'd be on the right track.

I for one agree with this completely. (I said it myself, in my weblog.😃 ) In fact I agree with everything Raven said in his post - with the possible exception of the bit about video telephony - it may be a gimmick now and for the next year or two, but one that could really take off as a must have capability, depending on how it's positioned.

I think the Symbian consortium really needs to focus on creating some sort of media portal for its devices - and quickly, in view of the recent announcements from Microsoft :evil: (see here). They need to make it easy to get content onto the device - if they hope to stay in the game.

Speaking of which, I really like Russell Beattie's idea of making Nokia smartphones compatible with at least some N-Gage games.

Nice blog, Doug. As I read many American run PDA sites, I've also been thinking alot about the fact that there's hardly any mention of Symbian OS on any of them - it's all about Palm and Microsoft. The Nokia 3650 is sometimes mentioned, because someone got it for free from their carrier. But that is the cheapest and most simple/basic Symbian OS phone made, and therefore not a very good representative of the Symbian OS. But it's all about carrier subsidising over there, isn't it? More advanced Symbian phones like the P910 etc. has probably not been picked up by any of your carriers.

Speaking of the P910, that one also has some major flaws. The first one being price - it is ridiculously over-priced, like most of the high-end phones from Sony Ericsson. And then you have the proprietary Memory Stick Duo format, coupled with no built-in, or possibility of adding Wi-Fi, or even EDGE. But if you look beyond these flaws it is both an excellent phone and a very decent PDA. You have a rock solid OS/UI, plenty of memory and a growing software library. The processor is only clocked at about 156MHz, but it still able to run Doom at full speed, as well as a Sega Megadrive/Genesis and an Atari ST emulator at decent speeds. But the CPU - along with many other things, hasn't been changed since the P800 was released more than two years ago. Unfortunately the Symbian licensees/partners/manufacturers haven't really made as many hardware improvements as they could have. The OS/UIs have seen some major improvements, but the hardware is lagging a bit behind. Nokia have announced that they will be using SD cards in the future, but when it will happen and if it will be I/O compatible remains to be seen.

And then you have the 7710 which was recently released in Asia and due for release in the rest of the world this month. It is in many ways the perfect multimedia PDA with an excellent 640x320 pixels touch screen and a reasonable price tag, but again no Wi-Fi or 3G and no third party software diminish its potential significantly.

Then enters the 6630 which is both 3G and EDGE enabled and comes with a speedy processor. But again you have some serious drawbacks like a new, stupid MMC card format which is currently limited at the low size of 64MB. It also has a limited amount of available RAM. Not to mention the current S60 screen resolution (176x208) and T9 as the only way to input text, which limits its use as a PDA.

In comes the 9500 Communicator which is the most feature packed Symbian OS phone to date with a full QWERTY board, built-in Wi-Fi and plenty of RAM and internal Flash storage memory. The drawback? -It is on the large side for an everyday phone, for most people. The processor is also a bit underpowered.

At last we have the 9300 which is the 9500's younger brother. It is everything the 9500 is in a smaller size, except there is no Wi-Fi and there is no camera (😊).

So there is no 'perfect' Symbian phone, but then again there is no perfect Palm or MS phone either, except maybe the XDA III - or whatever its name is (the one with the slide out keyboard), but that one is comparable to the 9500 in size/weight.

I still have faith in Symbian though. If the rumours/predictions are true, we will see a Symbian phone from Nokia in a communicator form factor with a full QWERTY board and a 640x320 pixels touch screen. Which would be the perfect device, for me, unless Nokia manages to fu@k it up again by leaving out Wi-Fi or making it the size of a real laptop or some other stupid thing.

When it comes to video telephony, you may be right. But I think that's looking too far off into the future. Maybe it'll be a commonly used feature 5-6 years or so from now.

The same goes for phone cameras. I still think they are useless and only adds bulk and extra cost to a device. The cheap camera lenses also ruins the design of the device, IMO. That's why I'm so glad Nokia left it out in the 9300, and I hope more high-end smartphones will follow in that trend. I think phone cameras should be left in the cheaper, more simple mobile phones, as it is mostly used by kids anyway.

Wow, I really rambled on this time, didn't I... 🙄

I think the point is that the low end is where the numbers and the money are. I know many would love to see high end PDA devices powered b Symbian, but thats not a core focus of Symbian or Nokia.

My personal opinion is that it impressive that smartphones powered by Symbian OS provide competition to the likes of Palm OS PDA's and Pocket PC's/ In my opinion they are a different market segment. The line does become more blurred with Treo I admit, but even then the Treo is a Palm first and then a phone. MS Smartphone is a competitor, but then it has the issues with power, memory, wifi etc... and honestly I think Microsoft biggest problem in smartphones is that it has a data centric OS rather than a communication centric OS (Symbian). The thought paradigms behind them are different and are perhaps reflective of the US / Europe divide.

About mobile media - well yes to an extent, but honestly I think mobile media is overhyped. I can't see it becoming main stream to sync mobile media with the desktop. (I may of ourse be wrong). Mobile Media for the most part will be provided by Operators. I'm not convinced by Russ' post about Mobile Media to be honest.

Put it this way - think about how much media consumption takes place on a computer vs a dedciated DVD Player or the TV. Yes a lot of tech heads use a computer for music and DVDs but thats a minority thing. Yes I do think media centres are the future, but only at the high end and even then to a large extent they will remain as high end video players rather than all encompassing experience centres.

Rafe wrote:I think the point is that the low end is where the numbers and the money are. I know many would love to see high end PDA devices powered b Symbian, but thats not a core focus of Symbian or Nokia.

Well, yes, of course the big bucks is in the cheaper phones, that's the way it has always been, and that's the way it will always be. But it doesn't mean that Nokia, and other Symbian OS licensees, should forget the higher end market. It still constitutes a significant portion of the revenue. I mean, the 9210(i) was considered a 'niche' device, but they still sold something like a million units worldwide. And considering the price of the unit (above €1000 was it?), Nokia certainly made some dough there. The 9500 - and especially the 9300 will most likely sell in even higher numbers. Granted it doesn't match the sale figures of the 3650 etc., I still don't see why the high-end market should be neglected.

In fact, I seem to recall a press release from Nokia stating that they will start focusing more on the PDA market. Which I for one think is a wise business decision.

My personal opinion is that it impressive that smartphones powered by Symbian OS provide competition to the likes of Palm OS PDA's and Pocket PC's/ In my opinion they are a different market segment.

I think that line is becoming more and more blurred. And why shouldn't it be? With the Communicators and the 7710, where is the line then? I'd say they are both PDA first and phone second. Or rather PDA and phone well balanced. 😊

Thanks for the good comments, guys (especially about my blog 😊 ). Looks like you had a good conversation going - too bad I was asleep at the time (what with being on the other side of the planet and all).

What Raven said about the P910 not being picked up in the U.S. is true. There are maybe three or four shops here in San Francisco where you can buy it (they're all Asian import shops that have carrier kiosks in them, not the shopfronts of the carriers themselves), for about $500 with a contract. I've given serious thought to picking one up but for lack of A) 3G capability or Wi-Fi, B) a megapixel or better camera, and C) $500 :tongue:. But I don't know, it seems to be the best thing going so maybe I will.

You might be surprized by how backward North America still is regarding mobile. Even here, in Silicon Valley - which is, I guess, the apex of telecom-related tech in North America - even here, most people don't really seem to get it. It's true that the Blackberry is popular - because of its adoption by people's employers, I think, and because of its utility as an email device. With one exception that's about as advanced as it gets.

The exception is the Treo 600, which threatens to become the iPod of the mobile world here - they're still growing in popularity, and for most people nothing else exists in that niche. That's why I feel it's so important for Nokia to get a device with a similar form factor into this market ASAP - I think Treo fans will be thrilled when/if they experience a real Symbian device.

The real problem here isn't the user, though - they're no different from users elsewhere, just not as aware as some. The real problem is the carriers and their profit model. They want to maintain the "walled garden", and keep the phone locked up tight - it's true that they see, or hope to see, all media being downloaded/purchased from them. And often they'll insist that a manufacturer cripple a feature or leave out an app if they think it breaches their garden wall. The one exception - a slight one - among the carriers, is T-Mobile, and that's maybe because they're Europe-based and have a somewhat different model for making money. I think when the carriers here start feeling some growth pressure they might begin to broaden their thinking.

Now I'm the one going on, so I'll just add a couple of short things. I think mobile video is a lifestyle thing and represents a true paradigm shift. Up to now watching TV or a movie has been pretty much a communal activity, like sitting around a campfire; but I think that more and more it's becoming an intimate, individual pursuit, like reading a book. So you'll have video material of various types and lengths loaded on your device, and what you'll watch will depend on how much idle time you have. Personally, I think being able to do this will really drive demand for these devices. But it isn't going to happen until it becomes really easy (and cheap) to do. Microsoft seems to be anticipating this, and trying to drive it, with their recent announcement of a media download service for mobile devices, at $20 a year, flat rate.

Lastly, I know the higher margins and volume are in the basic phones, but the key to market development and penetration probably lies in uptake among corporations and advanced users. And for that an advanced flagship product is, I think, a requirement. I like the communicators as a palmtop or handtop platform; but I imagine they're a little too big for most people's daily use. I want something smaller and also (since I'm a photographer) with a decent camera in it.

Man! My typing finger is tired!

I think it would be ncie to see a Treo vs Series 60 comparison. Thoughts anyone?

Not a fair comparison, I'd say... A Treo vs. a Pxxx would be a better a comparison in my opinion.

I'mjust intruiged by

The exception is the Treo 600, which threatens to become the iPod of the mobile world here

and given that S60 is the designated 'mass market' UI (UIQ3.0 isn;t here yet) that what led me to jump on the S60. But yes, UIQcomparison would be good as well.

TBH I'd go the whole hog and review the Treo600 and compare to all the S60, UIQ, and S80. Main reason being that if people happen across the review they can see how the 3 types of Symbian device compare with it.

I've read a comparison review between the Treo 600, the XDA II and the P900 (don't remember the link, sorry). It was on an independent website, and it was quite interesting to see the P900 come out as the best overall device combining PIM, multimedia and phone functionality.

As to a Treo 600 compared to say a Nokia 6600, it's quite obvious, to me, what the verdict would be. The Treo is obviously more PDA oriented and therefore scores highest in that department, while the 6600 is of course the better phone. It's really a matter of the old apples vs. oranges thing, they are just too different and not even aimed at the same user segment.

Another thing is geographical markets. While the Treo is a popular device in the USA, and is promoted by the Sprint, and other, networks over there, it is hardly available throughout the rest of the world. And like it was mentioned earlier in this thread, on the other hand you have phones such as the P910 which is widely available in Asia and Europe, but not in the US. So in this case, it would be a bit of a stretch to do a cross-market comparison if you have price and availability as a criteria.

You could always compare the Treo 600 to the 6620 (US version of the 6600) though, but again, I don't really see it as either a fair nor an interesting comparison, and it would only be for the people living in the States.

What I'd like though, is to see a Nokia 9300 vs. the i-Mate Jam vs. the Treo 650 (GSM version) comparison, that'd be interesting. 😊 But I like SwitchBlade's idea too.

Yeah, I like switchblade's idea. But then I also like the idea of comparing the P910 to the Treo 600.

The reason I like it is because they seem to have basically the same form factor. And also because lots of people in North America who have the Treo 600 - or who are thinking about buying it - don't even know about Symbian; so, if they see a comparison like that they're likely to read it. And once they read it, some of them will start asking for the P910 - which could increase the supply here. I can imagine if, say, a good number of T-Mobile users in the U.S. started calling the carrier asking for the phone, it might very well turn up in T-Mobile's offerings. (Why it doesn't already is beyond me.)

The Treo 600 is most popular here among tech geeks and people in the professions - doctors and such. Series 60 devices, on the other hand, are used by lots of people, as they should be, but they're definitely a different can of worms from the more PDA-centric offerings.