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BBC: "Developing countries dominate mobile phone sales"

5 replies · 1,658 views · Started 20 February 2007

Think phones are all about what's happening in Europe, America and Japan? Think again. According to the BBC, mobile phones are now overwhelming bought by people in developing countries. They quote a GSMA report which shows that 85% of the one million new mobile phone subscribers every day are from emerging economies, not rich ones. Mobiles are also providing a secure banking and trading system in developing countries for people and businesses who have never had accounts before.

Read on in the full article.

This report is really important, and really encouraging. It shows the effects of the mobile in general in society far outweigh it's value as a "landline without wires".

It will also be the catalyst for poorer countries to enjoy the benefits of personal computing. People are just now starting to realise the mobile is the next generation of computer, and that inevitably means the big grey box running Windows on your desktop will, thankfully, be gradually left behind - and in the case of emerging economies never encountered in the 1st place (lucky them!).
At the same time of course, the definition of what a "personal computer" means to people will change, and become less about sitting typing a document for example. All this change will also be tied in with increasing access to the internet via mobile (I hate to call it the "mobile web" as I don't think that will be a separate thing)

As for where smartphones fit in, I think it's inevitable that the boundaries between low end "non-smart" phones and smartphones will blur and disappear. The key differentiator is being able to change the functionality on the device - i.e. install new software etc. This will happen on both smart and non-smart phones through either flash or java being dragged out of some submenu and integrated into the general functionality of the device, and/or the rise of mobile ajax in the browser - also liable to be dragged out into the general phone OS. Opera Mobile 9 points the way forward with "widgets" outside the browser. Mobile linux will also help the overall process as it will be cheaper to implement, and thus result in a cheaper handset than that running Symbian or Windows (I would like to see Symbian succeed but am looking at economic reality - unless Symbian become very cheap or open source).

And for developers as well as users, these developments create lots of new opportunities.

Alex
phonething.com

Thanks for that, Alex! 😊

I wrote a feature about this some time ago ( http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/features/item/The_Last_Smartphone.php ), people think the revolutionary mobiles are stuff like the iPhone and N95 but they aren't. The mobile revolution is about providing communications and trading infrastructure in the poorer majority of the world where little or none exists. We can get all wide-eyed about our latest toys, but technology as simple as the text message is far more important when it starts changing communities and helping people out of poverty. It's the cheap end where the really exciting and world-changing stuff always happens, and phones are no exception.

I think a lot of phone functionality will move onto the web, once enough phones have browsers capable of accessing Google Documents-type sites properly. As you say, ajax would be a very interesting thing to see on a wide range of phones.

It would make sense to store your data online, if you could be reasonably sure it was secure and private, and if you could be fairly sure of getting connections to the internet when you need them. It also wouldn't matter what happened to your phone and you'd never have to synchronise it. Indeed, you could use any ajax-capable device any time you wanted: a phone, a PDA, a desktop computer or any other class of computer that comes along. As long as you can remember your passwords you could do exactly the same things on any of them. The devices would be as interchangeable as tin openers.

If that happens, the OS of the device would become mostly irrelevant as its only major task would be to run the browser and user interface.

It would merge mobile and desktop computing as the computers themselves would just be windows onto the web. Web servers would be doing all the storage and processing, and consumers would just be using terminals: pocket-sized ones called smartphones and desktop-sized ones called PCs.

Very processor-intensive tasks like cutting edge PC games would be difficult or impossible to do on the web in this way, but most people hardly or never use processor-intensive tasks. Most people use computers entirely for things like web browsing, email, word processing and so forth, which aren't at all demanding and could be done with virtually any PC or smartphone in the shops right now.

"unless Symbian become very cheap or open source"

It is pretty cheap, it only costs manufacturers something like a few dollars per phone. And if it's cheaper than Linux for the manufacturers to work with, it may actually save them money to stick with a commercial OS. I think it helps that Symbian isn't controlled by any one company but a number of rival manufacturers, so it's sort of semi-open if you see what I mean.

Linux on phones is doing very well in developing countries though, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if it became the main OS some day.

I think there is a need to consider the entire ecosystem beyond what it might cost a manufacturer, consider development:

Can an Indian villager afford Symbian Signed ?
In practical terms can they provide the credentials to verisign to get a cert ?
Can they fork out the extra for Carbide so they can do on-device debugging to catch a nasty bug ?
Is there a wealth of high quality freely available material to get up to speed for developing for Symbian (S60 or UIQ) ?
Is there a market to sell (and buy) software.. Java seems rather more profitable no ?

> "Developing countries dominate mobile phone sales"

In terms of (a) volumes or (b) revenue?

(answer: developing countries = a, developed = b)

@eyephone: As your post implies, smartphones in their current form are not the answer in poorer countries. I think that will be obvious to smartphone OS/hardware manufacturers seeking to enter those territories and therefore the cost liabilities you highlight will disappear.

The mobile industry consensus nowadays is that java on mobile is a failure, - it would have some chance at a future if it becomes truly write once run anywhere in all deployed handsets from tomorrow, but frankly the alternatives (flash and mobile ajax/widgets type things) are so close to mass market success, that I think we are at the beginning of the end for mobile java. I can tell you that most mobile developers are chomping at the bit for a platform that fulfills the promises J2ME made and broke, and the instant one comes along they'll be gone.

@tommivilkamo: I think you'll find revenue from developing countries quickly catches up and surpasses that of the developed world, particularly as the latter is at saturation with handset deployment while the former is mostly unconquered to date.