Rafe, thanks for an insightful and interesting analysis.
I am sure Motorola's UIQ team will go on to produce more high tier handsets with advanced features and that can only be good for the industry and consumers.
Looking at your analysis of the Motorola S/W platform and product portfolio, I have produced a diagram of how I think the positioning might pan out and attached it.
I have deliberately excluded P2K as it is not destined for much future development.
However, as you noted the RAZR2 V9 is a P2K handset because it can support 3G and Linux Java cannot. Therefore I would expect to see more P2K handsets released that might/should have been Linux Java on 3G.
Personally I think Motorola missed a trick by not releasing some of the EZX (Linux) handsets in Europe.
The likes of the ROKR E6 and Moto MING have been successful in Asia and there could have sold reasonably well in Europe / North America with little adaptation.
At a time when shareholders/analysts groaned that Motorola had nothing interesting in the shops, just the presence of these devices would have lifted some pressure since they are more multimedia capable than what Motorola has offered in 2006 and early 2007.
There are still no 3G Linux Java handsets announced.
Canary (K1) didn't sing, Sumba (K3) didn't roar and Ascension (Z6) hasn't risen.
Motorola has offered low end features in different wrappings and been found out.
In the mean time, Nokia is hoovering up oodles of revenue selling S60 multimedia handsets in Europe. The N95 sales curve has been Nokia's best S60 performance to date demonstrating that evolved consumers' appetites for a $600 phone are quite voracious. I have seen 14 year olds and 60 year olds cradling N95's. High end is a nice place to be.
Additionally, the launch of the iPhone will act as a catalyst to stir interest in high end phones in North America. Nokia's efforts to get American's interested in multimedia (S60) have faltered but Apple's intervention has renewed interest and this where Motorola can come in.
Motorola has a pretty loyal following in North America and Americans will more likely swallow Symbian with an all-American Motorola coating than a Finnish Nokia one.
Symbian would love to crack the North American market.
Nokia would love Symbian to crack the the North American.
So there's a lot of goodwill, hope and expectation behind the new tranche of UIQ phones that Motorola will introduce over the coming months.
I would like to see Motorola put some heavy investment in their Symbian phones.
If you look at the relatively small budget / resource it took to produce the Z8 and compare it to the massive level of investment poured into Linux Java; it becomes obvious that some redistribution of development budget would allow Motorola to catch some of the halo effect of the N95 / iPhone.