No one has a clue what will be going on in 10-20 years - who ever they are!!!
If you only did things you were sure about, you'd do nothing at all. 😊
People might not know 100% for sure, but there are definitely clues.
For example average phone sale prices are definitely dropping and have done for the past few years, so that's a clue that phones are getting less profitable.
At the same time, the amount of money spent on online services is going up, so that's a clue that it might be possible to make money from them.
Neither of those is a cast iron guarantee that Nokia should do this of course, but there is at least some logic to what they're doing.
Whilst the market maybe be not growing in Europe there certainly is profit to be had and the markets in India, China and other parts of the world are exploding.
Indeed, and that's what Nokia are doing, India and China are their two biggest markets. But do you think India and China are going to carry on expanding at their current rate forever?
If the market can become saturated in Europe, it can become saturated anywhere, and when that happens it becomes much more difficult to expand your sales.
What we don't need is another photo sharing website, another email address, another blog site, another music store another film rental / downloading site. Which is what Nokia appears to be doing.
As bartmanekul pointed out, it would be nice to have all those with a single login accessible from any device, which is the aim of Ovi.
It's often forgotten but Nokia emphasised when they launched Ovi that they didn't necessarily want to own or run every service, they just wanted to provide a single way to access lots of services. If they put Ovi on every Nokia handset, it's conceivable that they would have third party service providers joining the platform, the way third party game publishers may join a gaming platform.
To succeed in this cut throat business you need to make things work well out of the box. Apple with the iPod & Itunes and now the iPhone & the App store are good examples - Nokia & N-Gage is not.
You're assuming that what's going on now is how things will always be.
Nokia Maps used to be a very unreliable bit of software, but Maps 2.0 has been a huge improvement, and hopefully Maps 3.0 will be even better.
You can't just look at a first attempt and write a company off forever. Apple's first computer wasn't the Macintosh, it was the Apple 1 and later Apple II, both of which are almost completely forgotten now except by enthusiasts.
And the original iPod sold as badly as the original N-Gage (literally the same first year sales figures), which is also forgotten by most people.