Nokia Q1 2010 results, smartphone growth with cautious outlook

Thanks Mr Mark for your comment.

I have to disagree with regard to the idea of being happy with the dividends. In this specific instance the total of all dividends paid between Mar 99 and April 2009 is 4.20 USD per share. The price of the stock in the period in question, that is Jan-Mar 99, oscilated between 16 and 18 USD. For the sake of this conversation assume 3% return on a risk-free investment. If one invested 16 USD into a risk-free instrument, the return would be a bit over 6 USD over this period of time.

It seems to me that the price of the stock was always motivated by the believe, that Nokia will expand and will be the leader of the market. Since hope for the expansion seems to vanish even among the most zealous (I mean us, readers of the allaboutsymian 😊), the perspective of the stock are somewhat questionable.

As a previous owner of Nokia stocks, I would not buy it again until I see signs of a stable portfolio of products along with services.

Sorry, but Nokia should have combined E and N series phones a long time ago, but all we got were incremental updates of hardware year after year since the N95 was introduced. Than Apple came out with the Iphone and App store and you see Nokia scrambling to put together a touch screen device based on S60 UI. Not to mention Mosh, Nokia Beta Labs, comes with music, Ovi Store, Nokia Maps, Ovi Maps... etc...etc. Similarly Nokia had N Series PC Suite, PC Suite, and now Ovi Suite.

Seems to me management is having a hard time finding the right direction for the company.

tkao2025 wrote:As a previous owner of Nokia stocks, I would not buy it again until I see signs of a stable portfolio of products along with services.

Sorry, but Nokia should have combined E and N series phones a long time ago, but all we got were incremental updates of hardware year after year since the N95 was introduced. Than Apple came out with the Iphone and App store and you see Nokia scrambling to put together a touch screen device based on S60 UI. Not to mention Mosh, Nokia Beta Labs, comes with music, Ovi Store, Nokia Maps, Ovi Maps... etc...etc. Similarly Nokia had N Series PC Suite, PC Suite, and now Ovi Suite.

Seems to me management is having a hard time finding the right direction for the company.

i wouldn't even call it incremental updates. Everything has been downhill in terms of value offerings since the N95. The worst HW mistake they made was dumping OMAP for Freescale. So many features were lost, and it was probably a big porting effort that squander lots of talent, despite being both ARM cpus. It's like when Apple decided to use PowerPC instead of Intel. As the former Apple CEO John Scully stated himself, it was the single biggest mistake he made at the helm. And this looks just like it.

Gene,

Nokia do not have a high end proposition just now. No one in their right mind would think that they do. However, the high end is largely fashion driven and varies every few years.

There is no reason Symbian^3 will not be successful. As successful as the iPhone? Who knows? The point remains that the will make an impact and, frankly, the iPhone - great device that it is - is going to get squeezed a bit by the new Android handsets, WinMo7 and Symbian^3. They don't have to take all its share, they just have to hobble it and Apple's stock will drop like a stone.

In the meantime Nokia continue to grow sales, grow revenue and grow profit from the low to mid tier which is their bread and butter market. The high end is lost to them now but only a mug would say they will have no high end presence forever.

Mr Mark wrote:Gene,

Nokia do not have a high end proposition just now. No one in their right mind would think that they do. However, the high end is largely fashion driven and varies every few years.

There is no reason Symbian^3 will not be successful. As successful as the iPhone? Who knows? The point remains that the will make an impact and, frankly, the iPhone - great device that it is - is going to get squeezed a bit by the new Android handsets, WinMo7 and Symbian^3. They don't have to take all its share, they just have to hobble it and Apple's stock will drop like a stone.

In the meantime Nokia continue to grow sales, grow revenue and grow profit from the low to mid tier which is their bread and butter market. The high end is lost to them now but only a mug would say they will have no high end presence forever.

high end is driven by fashion?! Now you're just grasping. Maybe those gold edition N97 is driven by fashion, but the IT support staff that decides what should be corporate standard sure don't. Which explains why RIMM have such high adoption rates here inthe US and for some of the corps I've worked in London. As for iPhone, I was a skeptic as well while I enjoyed my N95, but obviously, you don't see why so many ppl have lost faith in Nokia. they couldn't capitalize on their dominant position when they released the best built and selling phone of the decade, while apple has been very steady on their progress. First they built a solid phone position from nothing with iphone, now they utilize their position to take on amazon and sony with itunes, and they even have a vibrant developer culture, albeit controversial. And google has now invaded mobile search space with a vibrant app culture as well from nothing. You really r a true nokia fanboy.

Unregistered wrote:high end is driven by fashion?! Now you're just grasping.

Nope. The coolest phone at the time gets bought - the RAZR, the N95, the iPhone. What will be next? Don't know.

Which explains why RIMM have such high adoption rates here inthe US and for some of the corps I've worked in London.

Which are mostly Curves and some older Blold models. What does this have to do with the higher end in the consumer market?

As for iPhone, I was a skeptic as well while I enjoyed my N95, but obviously, you don't see why so many ppl have lost faith in Nokia.

Oh I do. I just just think it's recoverable.

they couldn't capitalize on their dominant position when they released the best built and selling phone of the decade, while apple has been very steady on their progress.

No arguments there. That was then though, this is now.

First they built a solid phone position from nothing with iphone, now they utilize their position to take on amazon and sony with itunes, and they even have a vibrant developer culture, albeit controversial.

As does everyone else now.

And google has now invaded mobile search space with a vibrant app culture as well from nothing. You really r a true nokia fanboy.

And Ovi and RIM have app stores too.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a realist. I think Nokia badly dropped the ball after the N95 - the N96 was insulting and the least said about the N97 the better. However, it's two years on and the penny's finally dropped - if you're going to release a large screen, touch enabled device it needs to be compete with the iPhone and the Desire. That's why the N8 has been delayed because another ropey device won't do it.

I have an X6 - the Symbian^1 UI still has it quirks but the phone itself is great and the capacitive touchscreen excellent. If the N8 irons those quirks out and puts some more horsepower and memory in then, based on Nokia's brand loyalty, it will compete. In the meantime Nokia have concentrated on their low and mid tier market expansion because, you know, a company can actually have more than one strategy or, to put it another way, when it went wrong for Nokia they had a market to fall back on. What happens if it goes wrong for Apple?

I'm sorry the facts don't meet your world view.

Mr Mark wrote:Nope. The coolest phone at the time gets bought - the RAZR, the N95, the iPhone. What will be next? Don't know.

Which are mostly Curves and some older Blold models. What does this have to do with the higher end in the consumer market?

Mr Mark wrote:
Oh I do. I just just think it's recoverable.

Mr Mark wrote:
No arguments there. That was then though, this is now.

As does everyone else now.

Mr Mark wrote:

And Ovi and RIM have app stores too.

Mr Mark wrote:

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a realist. I think Nokia badly dropped the ball after the N95 - the N96 was insulting and the least said about the N97 the better. However, it's two years on and the penny's finally dropped - if you're going to release a large screen, touch enabled device it needs to be compete with the iPhone and the Desire. That's why the N8 has been delayed because another ropey device won't do it.

I have an X6 - the Symbian^1 UI still has it quirks but the phone itself is great and the capacitive touchscreen excellent. If the N8 irons those quirks out and puts some more horsepower and memory in then, based on Nokia's brand loyalty, it will compete. In the meantime Nokia have concentrated on their low and mid tier market expansion because, you know, a company can actually have more than one strategy or, to put it another way, when it went wrong for Nokia they had a market to fall back on. What happens if it goes wrong for Apple?

I'm sorry the facts don't meet your world view.

Wait, you agreed with me, brought out some ridiculous statement about motorola that reflect neither nokia nor any other current competitor, talked about peanut dividends on a sinking stock, talked about a product that hasn't even been released, has been delayed, and is relying on marketing from a company that has completely lied about their marketing (anyone seen that youtube video about N97 marketing vs reality), and is pushing a product that pretty much repeats their failed strategy on N97 (tout the greatest HW specs TODAY, not the future) which means they'll probably get leaped again (A4 processor, Snapdragon GHz), and you call yourself a realist, and I'm not? You're just floundering.

-Gene

Unregistered wrote:Have Google fixed the ridiculous maps having to be downloaded problem yet?

Any good sat nav device has a stored internal map. Any device that doesn't is useless out of connection area.

"Google Maps pre-caches the entire route," said Mobile Maps product manager, Steve Lee. "It needs a data connection when you ask for navigation. But while driving to your destination, if you intermittently lose the connection, it will still carry on. As long as you stay on the route."

More info here:

http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/357430/google-brings-free-turn-by-turn-satnav-to-uk

I'm not suprised this info is kept away from many interested smartphone users including many AAS readers. They will only promote Nokia Maps... Google SAT NAV is actually a lot better. Imagine not having to fiddle with your sat nav. Just tell it where you want to go and Google "integillently" works out your route even if you don't know the name 😉

Unregistered wrote:"Google Maps pre-caches the entire route," said Mobile Maps product manager, Steve Lee. "It needs a data connection when you ask for navigation. But while driving to your destination, if you intermittently lose the connection, it will still carry on. As long as you stay on the route."

More info here:

http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/357430/google-brings-free-turn-by-turn-satnav-to-uk

I'm not suprised this info is kept away from many interested smartphone users including many AAS readers. They will only promote Nokia Maps... Google SAT NAV is actually a lot better. Imagine not having to fiddle with your sat nav. Just tell it where you want to go and Google "integillently" works out your route even if you don't know the name 😉

Imagine actually having the maps on board and not needing a connection.

Yes, it stands. Google caches the route only, which is a half-arsed botch compared to the way that real satnavs work. First you don't have to touch your satnav, you have to talk to it, then you have to wait for it to download loads of maps tiles (presumably multiplied by however many zoom levels you might need - or constrained (again) to just one zoom level). Then if there is any need to divert whilst on route you had better hope you have a data connection. That is just so shabby. Google need to get hold of a real tomtom or garmin and go beyond metropolitan US cities and then they might actually understand how Satnav is supposed to work.

Until then it is the worst offering on the market.

Unregistered wrote:Y

Wait, you agreed with me, brought out some ridiculous statement about motorola that reflect neither nokia nor any other current competitor, talked about peanut dividends on a sinking stock, talked about a product that hasn't even been released, has been delayed, and is relying on marketing from a company that has completely lied about their marketing (anyone seen that youtube video about N97 marketing vs reality), and is pushing a product that pretty much repeats their failed strategy on N97 (tout the greatest HW specs TODAY, not the future) which means they'll probably get leaped again (A4 processor, Snapdragon GHz), and you call yourself a realist, and I'm not? You're just floundering.

-Gene

I'm with Mr Mark. Nokia got complacent and screwed up with N96/N97. They have been regrouping and nobody here actually knows how good they will come back with the N8* offering and subsequent products which will have the boost of Symbian^4 and QT. They have, in the meantime, been maintaining their presence with low cost and volume, and amazing features like maps, a clever bridging strategy.

The ability of Symbian to regionalise stands them is a good position in the real power markets of Asia.

I don't think geeky numbers like 1GHz, 1.2GHz and 1.6, or geeky names like SnapDragon, omap or whatever actually matter much to the vast majority of buyers. Most people are just concerned with what it does rather than the tech details of how it does it. Neither I, nor Mr Mark nor Gene have a crystal ball and can predict this.

The mistake so often made on a discussion board like this, is to be so insular. A dedicated phone enthusiast website is likely to attract a lot of boring geeks who make the mistake of presuming that their opinion actually matters in the grand scheme. What matters most is the majority of the world, who just don't give a flying f*** whether there is an A4 processor, in fact to them it is a complete turn off.

Hence the reason that the very well spec'd N900 is such a niche product.

Agree with unregistered above! But i hope they have splashing surprise with Symbian^3 launching it with Ovi Store 2.0 and finalising the Ovi Suite. If they dont do that and let us wait for the Symbian^4 they will lose even the hardcore fans (Geeks) like what they did with Communicator users & Gaming users (N Gage).

Unregistered wrote:Imagine actually having the maps on board and not needing a connection.

Yes, it stands. Google caches the route only, which is a half-arsed botch compared to the way that real satnavs work. First you don't have to touch your satnav, you have to talk to it, then you have to wait for it to download loads of maps tiles (presumably multiplied by however many zoom levels you might need - or constrained (again) to just one zoom level). Then if there is any need to divert whilst on route you had better hope you have a data connection. That is just so shabby. Google need to get hold of a real tomtom or garmin and go beyond metropolitan US cities and then they might actually understand how Satnav is supposed to work.

Until then it is the worst offering on the market.

Disagree!

I've used many SAT NAVS tomtom, igo, garmin, nokia maps, google etc. Google offering is actually better than most. Try it!

Unregistered wrote:Disagree!

I've used many SAT NAVS tomtom, igo, garmin, nokia maps, google etc. Google offering is actually better than most. Try it!

Lucky you, you've got good coverage everywhere. I don't.

I have tried it, persisted, came to the conclusion that it is a waste of time and got myself a proper satnav.

Google Map downloading = chupala. Sucks.

Unregistered wrote:You mention a company that had to sell their mobile unit to make your point?

When you go from being the top dog in the mobile industry to a virtual non-entity because you focused on one phone and don't repackage or develop alternative market strategies to fall back on then it's pretty relevant.

Because that's actually what happened to Motorola, Gene.

And who's talking about Bolds and Curves? I'm talking about the business lineup.

The Bold, Tour and Curve are the business line up. We use Bolds and Curves for example. I'm not even sure what point you're trying to make here.

And at least Apple made other revenue streams built on their products correctly from the get go.

Yup.

What does nokia have to show for it? Mosh? Download(!)? CWM? To me, your comment above, and your comment about dividends just shows you know nothing about the industry and business in general.

Well since Ovi is the second biggest app stroe and growing at a faster rate than Apple's I'd say they've covered that one off. Also I'm pretty confident I know a damn sight more about pensions funds than you do - you might want to look at balanced portfolios and accumulation funds for a start because, frankly, anyone who banks their pension on one stock is bats**t crazy.

What makes you think this? This just looks like a comment out of thin air.

Nokia have a habit of being written off and coming back plus they have a well funded R&D deprtamnet. What makes you think they wont?

But what are the sales figures on each? And I'm not advocating RIMMs business either, but their bread and butter is in enterprise, which has remained stable and continues to look stable, while their consumer product line sales keeps growing.

You might want to look at the business vs consumer subscription data for the last five quarters. You may well be surprised where the growth comes from.

What's Nokia's margins on Ovi? seems like their best move the past 2 years is NAVTEQ, but even that seems so ridiculously overpriced. When will they ever recover their multi-billioin EUR purchase on it?

Pretty quickly given the three quarters of a billion euro profit each quarter I would imagine. NAVTEQ exists to make the phone smore attractive - I guarantee you that Nokia phones would not sell as well without it.

Sorry, Gene - you make no coherent arguments at all I'm afraid.