Convergence at 95% - the way of the world?

I've dabbled ever-so-slightly with reliability studies in the past. Very high levels of reliability <i>are</i> possible in complex systems, as demonstrated by modern jet engines and fly-by-wire passenger aircraft. However, getting to that point is slow and very expensive. A consumer product that isn't safety-critical will always be subject to the pressures of cost and the desire to bring a new product to market before the competition.

I think you've definately hit a nerve here that we've all quietly felt for a while now. Yes we're all convergence disciples who know that one device is the way to go. However we all notice eventually the problems of such complexity. I'm still madly in love with my n73 but I've learned to live with the few bugs and freezes. Obviously its worth having the great camera even though an n70 is much quicker and more efficent (at least I've heard) taking pics than my mobile. I'm sure in time convergence will get smoother but till then I still think its worth the side effects.

Separates are always easier to use, more reliable and higher quality, and always will be.

However, how many people use a separate pocket calculator any more? They used to be immensely popular in the 1970s, the equivalent of the smartphone now, yet they're almost totally absent from shops except for the educational sections (and that's a somewhat artificial situation too, most students are banned from using converged devices like phones in exams in order to prevent cheating).

How many people buy separate portable radios? They used to be immensely popular in the 1950s and 1960s, the equivalent of the iPod now, yet separate radios have disappeared from most shops, replaced with converged devices where the radio is built into a CD player or mobile phone.

How many people carry a camera with them everywhere? Very few.

Pagers? Most of the networks have disappeared.

Convergence will always come with a price, a separate device will always be better in some way. But at some point it may be a price worth paying, and that's when the separates start to give way to converged devices.

Krisse - I agree with your main point but I was amused by one of your justifiying arguments. In my opinion you are way off the mark to suggest that calculators were ever as popular in the 1970s as smartphones are now. There was a big novelty factor effect with them when they came out but did people carry them around with them as they went about their business? I don't think so.

I was disappointed to read that Steve lost that nativity moment. I didn't have the option of using an N93 at my daughter's nativity play and took the camcorder instead and it worked nicely. Steve's experience shows that for really important events we may always need a good 'single purpose' device.

"In my opinion you are way off the mark to suggest that calculators were ever as popular in the 1970s as smartphones are now. There was a big novelty factor effect with them when they came out but did people carry them around with them as they went about their business? I don't think so."

I'm not saying as many people carried them around as they do with phones, clearly phones are the only electronic device that everyone carries everywhere. But a lot people did buy one, and did carry them around. That's why people were excited about them being pocket calculators rather than tabletop ones! 😊

Without a pocket calculator, how else would you do complicated calculations if there were no table calculators nearby? The business uses alone made it a vital piece of equipment and definitely not a novelty item (the first 1970s calculators cost hundreds of dollars), and it rapidly spread into schools and homes too once the price fell at the end of the 1970s. It was a breakthrough item, and it was also the first popular handheld electronic device.

The point I was trying to make was that separate calculators were much more popular before convergence and much less popular after convergence, even though separate calculators are still much cheaper, easier to use and more reliable for most functions.

Phones and smartphones/PDAs have replaced the separate calculator for most people who used a separate calculator before, so they prove that in certain circumstances convergence is a real phenomenon, people are willing to sacrifice reliability and ease of use in certain circumstances.

I'm sure that's right Krisse.

It's hard to imagine people getting excited about getting a pocket calculator now, but I remember it was a big deal to us when one of our fellow Maths O level pupils got a calculator (manufactured by Sharp) that managed to calculate 72 factorial. The highest number the Casios would do was 69 factorial. How sad is that? (A bigger question is why would anyone want to know the answer to 72 factorial but let's not go there.) Unfortunately we are as sad today about the latest things our mobiles can do. Isn't about time we grew up? 😊