Svdwal, can I first say you're writing some really good comments here, very intelligent replies. We might disagree on some things but hopefully this discussion enhances the whole article by including different points of view.
"Ok, imagine the S60 UI on a modern HDTV. Lots of resolution. Now imagine you want to write a letter in which you need to make some calculations. So you need a word processor and the calculator. Both things can be done on the smartphone, but you cannot see the calculator and the letter at the same time. Copy and paste the calculator answers to the letter?"
You can switch between them very easily, just hold down the S60 menu button. It's no more difficult than using the taskbar on Windows.
I totally agree that you will always be able to do far more with a PC, but I'm saying that most people simply don't need to do things like show a calculator and a document side-by-side. Being able to task switch is good enough.
"As soon as a smartphone can do the same as a PC for a given person, that smartphones is as good as the PC is for that given person."
No, this is the point I'm making: convergence does NOT require a converged device to be as good as the device it replaces.
No converged phone feature is EVER as good as the separate device it replaces, it's always worse and usually much more expensive. Yet convergence still happens because people don't need the converged feature to be as good, they just need it to be good enough.
"Even though the modern smartphone has enough oomph to run 90% of current PC apps, are people going to write all these apps for the smartphone too?"
The applications that are most commonly used are most definitely present on all smartphone platforms.
You're right that most PC apps will never get converted to smartphone, but the average user never even knows about most PC apps. As long as there's a browser, email app, document editor, IM, media player etc then the average user won't really need much more. And the hardware makers tend to include these basic apps on their smartphones anyway (for example Nokia themselves developed the S60 browser and bundle it with all S60 phones).
"No you don't because nobody uses the same 6 apps. Anyway, as soon as you want to see two apps onscreen at the same time, things become as complicated as having a lot of apps on screen at the same time."
Yes, lots of people use those same 6 apps almost all the time, sometimes even less. For example, my parents both have PCs which they use for work, and they only really use two applications: the browser and the word processor. Their email is handled by a web-based application, Gmail, and if they chose to use Google Documents then they'd be using just one PC-based application: the browser.
PCs are so cheap now, and so many people want to get online, a lot of people aren't buying PCs as computers, they're buying PCs as gateways onto the internet and/or as typewriters.
There was a phenomenon similar to this in the 1980s Europe: home computers became so cheap that people started buying them purely as games machines, mostly never their potential as serious devices. Games consoles gradually took over from home computers precisely because so many people were only using them for games. It didn't matter that consoles were far more limited, because they did what was required of them.
"So, for a smartphone to be a viable PC replacement, this means that it must first cater for the early adopters, doing something for them that the PC doesn't, or doesn't as well or as conveniently or as cheaply. As long as that doesn't happen, the smartphone won't replace the PC for the early adopters, and therefore for nobody."
Smartphones already do cater for early adopters: they're smartphones. People who are into technology will still buy them because they already offer something desirable, the ability to have a connected pocket-sized computer. It doesn't matter if TV Out is something they want, techies will still buy smartphones purely as smartphones.
S60 alone has sold 100 million units and models like the 6120 take it deep into the mainstream market, well past the early adopter stage.
If TV Out becomes a standard feature of smartphones, which seems very likely, and if smartphone sales increase, which is already happening year on year, then you'll end up in a situation where more people can access the web on a TV through their phone than on a monitor through a PC.
And that's when things start getting interesting...
"Finally, I think the Wii with Opera is acurrently a much better candidate for replacing the PC for those people doing everything on the web. It's cheap, it's fun, it looks good, it's much easier to use than current smartphones."
😊
The Wii is absolutely great, and I agree it's by far the easiest device to use, which is why I said in the article that TV Out smartphones desperately need compatibility with some sort of pointing device. Something like the Wii-mote would be just as good as a mouse or a touchscreen, indeed perhaps it would be more intuitive and therefore better.
But in the future, if smartphones can match or exceed the Wii's resolution, and if they have some sort of pointing device, then using a smartphone browser and using the Wii's browser will be pretty much the same. The differences will be that the smartphone is portable, and far far more people buy smartphones than games consoles, so a smartphone-based TV Out platform is more likely to take off than a console-based one.