American Analyst Downgrades Nokia after Apple iPhone News

I agree with the analyst. Nokia is going to be in a world of hurt soon.

Yes, North American sales don't exist; but with the iphone 3G at this price point Nokia will never take off.

Sales in China, Europe, and the Middle East will all suffer. Yes, Nokia ships more low cost handsets, and it is moving S60 downscale. But Apple is aiming to steal profit share away from Nokia, and if you compare iphone sales to E and N series that is different than iphone vs. s60.

The only killer app for smartphones may be nav in the short term. Nokia is well positioned there as it can give away Nokia Maps. Apple can't; a 3rd party solution will either cost around $100 or a monthly charge.

Long term there is potential with location based services but Apple is stealing developer mindshare as well. Look at how many iphone optimized websites vs. S60 optimized websites. Yes, Americans don't get mobile but this is first time since the early Treos that you have a platform with such wide marketshare.

Look how Apple took the monopoly music business and leveraged it into smartphones. Nokia can't do the same with GPS/maps/

The smaller smartphone players (palm, S-E, google) will all disappear. In 2 years, Apple will have 30% of the market and 70% of the profit. Nokia will remain a major player but sales of high end handsets will have fallen through the floor. They will look like Dell or HP now: large sales but low profits. RIM will only survive because of sunk costs by corporations which are slow to change. Windows Media will also disappear from smartphones.

i happen to agree with krisse on almost all of the points he has raised because they are quite valid.
what you have said about monkey ball and the app store being what n-gage could be is not really nokia's fault..sure they have been a bit nonchalant with the development and support for n-gage but it is SIGNIFICANTLY easier to produce a program that runs on one phone model with one set of specs as opposed to producing one that runs on multiple phones with different hardware setups so thats not a fair argument. furthermore your statement concerning the ipod: i hate to say it but the ipod software really wasnt anything spectacular and half the reason they have the mp3 market share they do is because of their EXTENSIVE marketing campaign and it was a successful one. they made the ipod cool and all other mp3 players look uncool but to be honest the microsoft zune was actually a better buy and i own an ipod. this is the same approach being taken with the iphone. promote a device with many niggling flaws and not too expensive or impressive in the hardware department this cool factor that other devices cant seem to match and you have yourself a golden goose. I'm not anti-apple or anti-iphone in any way, but i dont see the iphone as being revolutionary in any way. i think its more a show of how good publicity can make anything seem gr8

I find most of this pretty funny. I am currently using a rather poor little no-feature phone until I find a good replacement for my old 9300 (RIP). Without US 3G, the E90 cannot be an option, even if I could afford it.

Having said all that, it strikes me as funny that everyone is all over this analyst. First, he did not tell anyone to sell their Nokia stock. He did not yell about gloom and doom. He stated that an increase in competition makes this a good time to hold your position (not buying, not selling), and see what happens.

While I don't think anyone assumes Nokia is going to suddenly buckle under, Nokia has held their own press events to announce the second coming of the cell phone at one time or another (the debut of the N-Series comes to mind), and they certainly try to draw everyone's attention (including that of analysts and the press) to the high end of the line. That being the case, it seems a bit disingenuous to fault an analyst for thinking the high end is important. Certainly the low end phones are the cash cow, as someone put it, but hype does influence the stock market, which is driven by individual investors and their expectations.

Part of what an analyst tries to do is predict, not only if a company will do well or fail, but which stocks will grab the attention of the investors (including the public), for good or ill. As many have pointed out, Apple does hype very well. If they can influence a number of Nokia share holders to question their position Nokia's stock could well fall, even if the iPhone never has ANY effect on Nokia's business. If the price a stock MAY fall, even if you ultimately want more of that stock, you hold off on buying until the uncertainty has passed or the price actually falls (in which case you get a bargain!). These are the issues an analyst has to take into account.

As for those that say the iPhone will not increase competition for Nokia, I have to say that is pretty silly at this point. As people have said, Nokia has phones at all levels in the market (high-end, low-, etc.). A new phone, any new phone, with this much press and this much consumer mind-share, being introduced in 70 countries (22 is only on the first day), is certainly an increase in competition. What part of Nokia's line will it really compete with? I'll let the consumers decide that. Will it fail? Perhaps. Ask me a year from now.

Did the analyst screw up? Nah.

judging by the defensive positions taken by several Nokia users here Apple must be doing something right. Its not about a long list of features its about the user experience. That is what nokia and others need to focus on not lists of features.

GPS = Global positioning system.
AGPS = Assisted global positioning system (some computation handed off to server, triangulation techniques used to speed up location look up).

If it's network only then it's not assisting shit.

Serious 60 wrote:GPS = Global positioning system.
AGPS = Assisted global positioning system (some computation handed off to server, triangulation techniques used to speed up location look up).

If it's network only then it's not assisting shit.

No, its genuine GPS. Tomtom have already said they have a working version on the iphone, which they wouldnt do if it was network based. Network based is nowhere near accurate enough for using satnav.

Yes, the contracts are now very competitive.

�35 a month over 18 months will get you 600 mins, 500 texts and unlimited internet/wifi. Chuck in another �7.50 for unlimited texts and you're paying �42.50 which I think is damn good.

Not to mention that all owners of the 2G iPhone who signed up to an 18 month contract only one year ago are being given the opportunity to upgrade to the new iPhone 6 months early for no cost, just to sign a new contract and a reduced price for the handset. They're all effectively getting out of their contracts 6 months early and getting the phone even cheaper!

If we assume that Mr Jobs will probably announce the third generation iPhone at next years WWDC this could be a very good contract to be on indeed!

Ratkat wrote:The tariff prices in the UK for iPhone 3G are very good now

http://www.o2.co.uk/iphone/paymonthly

Very competitive (cheaper than Vodafone have quoted me for an N78 upgrade �150 handset, 18 month contract, �40 per month)

iPhone 3G will also available as a PAYG for �269

Where did you get the price of �269 from for the PAYG? Is that an estimate based on the price of an iPod Touch? I can't find pricing for the PAYG anywhere.