snoFlake wrote:Great article Rafe and pretty much as I suspected although there were a lot of denials when it slipped out last Autumn.Obviously this is not in the least a disaster for Nokia but because of their delays and seeming lack of coherent direction (that has been made clear to a wider audience anyway) it is turning into a bit of a disaster. What could have been a positive news story and a "step forwards" has been allowed to become another club to hit them with. A lot of this has to do I feel with the very bitter experience of 2008/2009 in many peoples experience and frankly not many are now willing to give Nokia a break nor do they feel it can be trusted to develop quality technology. And it's really coming back to haunt them now, they can't buy themselves a break and every news cycle is another excuse or reason to pound their shares.
You may feel that the financial markets don't understand Nokia and you're probably right but they do sense the lack of direction and ultimately lack of profits or real growth compared to others in the sector., I know Ewan felt that E800mn in their last results was good but they were trading at a p/e of just shy of 30! Again today (and every day this week just about) the shares have made fresh lows and I wasn't joking about this seriously affecting their business plans and ability to finance (something to be avoided at all costs in this v credit rating sensitive point in the business cycle) additionally I believe that sub 6 Euros a share the current senior management will have to be sacrificed and we are already seeing the effects of the political manoeuvring internally in that knowledge. The shares closed at 6.71 today a close not seen since sometime in 1998 (I can't be a**ed to work out when) and pretty much on the low for the week. It can't carry on.
It turns out the N97 was a symptom of a much greater malaise. Lack of urgency or awareness of what is happening in the rest of the market being the biggest impression.
Thanks for compliment - appreciated.
I think you're right that it could have been better handled, but there's a limit to this too. They have outlined this multiple times for anyone that listens. As you say part of this could also people's willingness to give them a break, but there's also a media role in this. It seems to be that the some in the media do not want to listen. As we know it's much easy to write a negative story about Nokia. Yes Nokia could communicate better, but I think the media (of whatever kind) has a certain responsibility to look up the basics). Perhaps there's balance in between?
While I do feel the financial markets do not understand Nokia I absolutely agree with you that it have real business impact - I wouldn't be surprised to see the rating changes of bonds, credit, debt etc. How big of an impact this has given Nokia's cash reserves (and the fact they are still in profit by some way) is open to debate. I'm not a share market expert, but clearly there will need to be improvement. That should start coming in a few months - but is that soon enough - interesting conversation right there.
From talking to various people at Nokia I don't think its lack or awareness of urgency, rather it just takes time to do things. This can be seen as just a management problem, but I think this under estimates other factors inertia effect (made worse by Nokia's wide market stance) and the fact that big companies take while to move.
Reality Check wrote:Ahh an insulting response to a perfectly polite post. I'm sure that goes a long way to validated your point of view.For us, developing Symbian native apps is not cost effective. The fragmentation, the lack of a viable delivery platform, and the real data about how people use symbian devices make it clear that it is not a platform worth developing for. MeeGo might end up being different if they can get it on enough phones, tablets, etc., avoid the fragmentation Symbian has suffered from for the last decade, and somehow compete against Android and ChromeOS. Nokia know this. They're slow, not stupid.
I'm not sure I entirely agree that the Symbian experience you describe is universal, but leaving that aside the questions is whether Qt will change things as far as developing for Symbain go. It gives an abstracted, modern language, it avoids fragmentation etc etc... and its going to work on everything from S60 3.1 upwards. Do you think this will make a difference - will developers be willing to try?
Reality Check wrote:Nokia's biggest hope, emerging markets like India and Indonesia, will move to Android in a big way over the next 18 months.
I think you're right about Android being the biggest competitive threat, but I don't see why the merging markets will decisively move to Android (some movement sure). At this end of the market the logistics and distribution channels / chains are more important than the characteristics of the devices (never mind the platform). That's why Nokia has been so successful in these markets.
Reality Check wrote:On the constructive side? Nokia need to do the following:� consolidate OS' and hardware capabilities (ever clicked the device list drop-down in their support site?)
� provide a uniform app store experience across all devices, free from compatibility issues
� create confidence in their roadmap
� accept that 'better' specs don't equal a better user experience
� stop being so damn pigheaded
Symbian can be a useful OS for their dumb-phones for a couple more years, but that's about it.
Consolidation of OS is really what's happening isn't it? Or at least that's the aim, especially considering the Qt side of things. I see Nokia criticised for being multi-platform, but I'm not sure this is entirely fair given its size / market scope. I do think multiple Symbian version has been an issue, but looking at S60 3.2 and S60 5.0 that has largely been rectified.
Agree on app store - they are getting their slowly with Ovi Store.
Same on roadmap - and I think they deserve credit for having an open roadmap for their software platforms - far more than most.
Better specs can be applied to any manufacturer - look at Motorola's plan for 2GHz processors.
Antoine of MMM wrote:There were a few ways in which I wanted to respond to this, but I'll take the role best suiting my context in mobile: "preach it Rafe!"
Thanks!